Unmasking the Tihar Flower Shock: Why Marigold and Makhamali Prices Skyrocketed This Year

Kathmandu, October 2025—This year’s Tihar, the festival of lights and flowers, has been marred by a surprising surge in the prices of the two essential flowers: Sayapatri (Marigold) and Makhamali (Globe Amaranth). Prices have more than doubled, or even tripled, in retail markets compared to the previous year, leaving consumers frustrated and vendors struggling with lower sales volumes. A single marigold garland, which previously cost around Rs 80-100, was reportedly selling for up to Rs 1,000-1,500 in some areas of the Kathmandu Valley.

Our investigative analysis points to a convergence of four primary factors—a critical supply shock, the early timing of the festival, an unregulated middleman-driven market, and the lingering effects of last year’s market chaos—that collectively engineered this price explosion.

The Precursor: Balen Shah Administration’s 2024 Market Disruptions

The current price crisis cannot be fully understood without examining the aftermath of the Kathmandu Metropolitan City’s (KMC) enforcement policy during Tihar last year (2024).

The Demoralization and Waste Cycle

Last year, the KMC administration, under Mayor Balen Shah, took stringent measures to clear street vendors and restrict flower sales to designated areas (like malls and party palaces).

• Farmer Distress: The move, intended to manage city space and curb street congestion, severely hampered the traditional access to market for farmers from the surrounding districts. Many farmers, unable to find space or navigate the new system, were reportedly forced to discard large piles of fresh garlands on footpaths, incurring heavy losses and great waste.
• The Incentive Drop: This massive waste and demoralization had a critical knock-on effect. For many small-scale farmers, the financial loss and hassle of the previous year served as a major disincentive. They may have chosen to significantly reduce their acreage of Tihar-specific crops, particularly the high-risk, low-shelf-life Marigold, this season. This direct reduction in planting due to market uncertainty contributed to a lower baseline domestic supply available for Tihar 2025

The Triple-Threat Supply Shock (2025)

Building on the reduced production base from last year’s discouragement, the 2025 market faced multiple concurrent shocks.

A. The Import Restriction Lock

This year, the government formally announced a restriction on the import of foreign flowers, primarily from India, to protect and promote domestic floriculture.

• Marigold Deficit: Despite claims of self-sufficiency, FAN data historically showed that Nepal relied on imports to meet a significant portion (up to 30%) of the peak Marigold demand in urban centers. The combination of last year’s low farmer confidence and this year’s import ban created an immediate, non-negotiable supply deficit at the moment of highest demand.

B. Unseasonal Rainfall Damage

Farmers cited unseasonal heavy rainfall in the weeks leading up to Tihar (2025) as a major factor, destroying a large percentage of the open-field marigold harvest in key producing districts.

• Crop Loss & Timing: The rains and the slightly earlier timing of Tihar meant that not only were many flowers destroyed, but those that survived had not reached the quality or volume required to meet the festival rush, exacerbating the scarcity.

The Middleman Multiplier Effect

In a market defined by scarcity, the lack of effective price regulation allowed the supply chain to dramatically inflate costs.

Flower Type	Farm-Gate Price (Pre-Festival)	Farm-Gate Price (Tihar Peak)	Retail Market Price (Peak)	Price Increase Factor
Marigold (per Kg)	~Rs 300	~Rs 700 – Rs 800	Over Rs 1,000	~3x
Makhamali (per Garland)	~Rs 25 – Rs 30	~Rs 40 – Rs 45	Up to Rs 150	~3-4x

• Wholesale Rush: Intense competition among middlemen and wholesalers rushing to secure the limited flowers still available drove the farm-gate price up drastically.
• Retail Mark-up: With no price controls and high acquisition costs, retailers added hefty profit margins, resulting in the final price explosion that hurt consumers. Farmers, while getting a better price than last year, still complained that middlemen pocketed the lion’s share of the final cost.

A Cautionary Bloom

The unprecedented price surge this Tihar was the result of a systemic failure: good intentions (import restriction, street regulation) met poor execution, creating a vicious cycle of disincentive and scarcity. Last year’s market chaos deterred farmers from planting, leading to a smaller domestic supply. This year, the import ban, coupled with bad weather, could not be sustained by the already-reduced local stock, handing power directly to unregulated middlemen.

The market has proven that self-sufficiency requires not just a ban on imports, but stable market access, crop insurance, and robust regulatory oversight to protect both farmers and consumers.